NATURAL DISASTERS WITHOUT PROMISING PREDICTIONS

Planet Earth Blog

"Science Behind Acts of God"

During the time before the earthquake in Pakistan and after Hurricane Katrina was still hot on everyone's lips, Simon Winchester was all talk about earthquakes. Many individuals were a tad appalled at his ignorance towards the hurricane issue, but his concerns were well placed; they showed the similarities between our conceptions with hurricanes/tornadoes and earthquakes. Although hurricanes are more popular in the news, earthquakes are equally unpredictable, un-respected, and both are studied in underappreciated fields.

One of the main similarities between the two natural disasters is that they are both unpredictable. Even though Geologists have satellite images to keep track of the tectonic plates and meteorologists can keep track of wind currents with the Doppler radar, we still can not fully predict when and "at what strength" a natural disaster will occur. In regards to a personal experience, my uncle and aunt were given a warning that some remaining hurricane winds would hit Houston (their place of residence). Houston, however, was only hit by a small mist, hardly worthy of the word "rain!"

A rather unhealthy similarity between the two disasters is that they are both overlooked and underestimated, until a natural disaster occurs (e.g. Hurricane Katrina). Although the film Dante’s Peak was hardly a reputable movie, it hit home with the fact that people often act lazily upon disaster callings in regards to seismic activity; whenever there is potential for dangerous weather or seismic disturbances, there is usually little done about it. As mentioned earlier, scientists still can not determine the stength or the time at which these catastrophes attack, therefore, people will often hesitate whenever a warning (tremor or volcano) is made. Winchester states, “It will be a very brave geologist who advises a mayor that an earthquake is on the way. And a very brave mayor with the nerve to call for a full evacuation.” This proves another problem between weather and tectonic disasters in regards to misinformation or lack thereof; not only will people underestimate the potential for disaster but forecasters will possibly be secretive about potential natural disasters occuring because of the lack of evidence and the lack of desire to cause panic.

Finally, the most vital similarity is that both geology and meteorology are underappreciated fields of study. Would you place geology on equal standings with Math? I certainly wouldn't. As for meteorology, many people associate the study with weather forecasters on T.V. and account for it as a necessary yet trivial study. Winchester states that geology will start to popularize more as seismologists study the field. He states that as a “young” field of science, Geology is underestimated and overlooked like a younger brother among the older and more popular fields of Astronomy, Quantum physics, and, of course, mathematics. Although earthquakes do not occur as often as hurricanes and tornadoes, they are just as unpredictable, if not more, and just as dangerous.

In conclusion, the two disaster types share similar concepts on how they are thought about and delt with. What is tragic about the policy of natural disasters, is it takes an incident like Hurricane Katrina to bring public notice and concern towards weather study and meteorology; people will only concern themselves after there has been a catastrophe concerning the subject. Mr. Winchester states that geology is slowly gaining a larger following within the field, but I believe that it will not become as popular as meteorology until a Katrina-sized incident occurs within the country. As for the earthquake in Pakistan, there has been little buzz in the American media, even though many Pakistani homes and lives were affected by the earthquake. Apparently whether or not the disaster occurs at home plays a big part on popularizing the field as well.

Unpredictable disasters

Both hurricanes and earthquakes are terrible disasters. Both may be unpredictable but at least hurricanes can be tracked and have a predictable path. They start out as tropical depressions, and there is warning that they are near. I don’t think that some people take into consideration that they are in danger and what a hurricane can do to their lives. Also, earthquakes are very unpredictable and can strike at any moment especially in the predominant areas. I do think that more needs to be put into trying to figure how to predict such disasters. Right now we are in a time of havoc because of such disasters. Do we not have the technology and resources to progress? What is the problem? Geology and meteorology may be underappreciated field, that we need to start taking seriously.

Disasters are bad, give us more warning

I agree that more attention needs to be paid to meteorology and geology. They are both very useful and underappreciated. But if these natural disasters are so unpredictable is there even hope to making them more predictable? I know that nothing is impossible, but it just seems hard to believe that we will be able to actually predict or sense these things much earlier.
Also, I think that the scientist should let the mayor or even the federal government know when they find anything about any type of disaster that might occur. Yes, the hurricane in Houston was a little overplayed, but only because Katrina had happened a short time before. In my opinion I rather be “safe that sorry and I want to know when anything could happen. I think people should be informed and those who want to take action will and those who don’t want to can wait and see what happens.